Triple Jeopardy from Ultra-Processed Food, Generative AI and Environmental Degradation may pose an Existential Threat - How might Our Societies Manage?

ABSTRACT:  This feature addresses the concurrent threats posed by processes that increasingly control what we eat, how we think and worsen the health of our environment.  The damage to our well-being by the synergy generated by these developments is too obvious and cannot be ignored.  It is important to look at the whole picture. Given the geopolitical environment, strongly rooted multinational corporate interests and short-term nature of decision making, it is not clear how human societies can cope with these threats.

The Triple Jeopardy:  A brief introduction...

1.  Ultra-Processed Food (UPF): Since the middle of the 20th century, we are eating ever greater quantity of industrially processed food.  UPF, relatively inexpensive and designed to be addictive, is dense in calories but poor in essential nutrients (minerals and vitamins).  UPF also contains harmful additives. UPF has fuelled global rise in metabolic syndrome (MetS) (see Appendix 1) leading to an exponential increase in non-communicable diseases (NCDs). 

2. Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI):  What UPF does to the body, GenAI does to the mind. Digital technology before year 2000 (used in earlier smartphones and social media) was based on simple user prompts; however, GenAI generates entirely new but human-like outputs.  We are increasingly outsourcing creative and analytical reasoning to GenAI.  The resulting over-reliance on "intelligent machines" will result in social degeneration and GenAI addiction syndrome. Reduced critical thinking and analytical skills can be extremely damaging to the human society.  Additionally, GenAI chatbots are fuelling a mental health crisis among vulnerable populations (more on this later).

3. Environmental Degradation (EnvDeg):  EnvDeg refers to the worrying changes happening to the environment of our planet - global warming, melting ice, sea-level rise, extreme events (wild fires, droughts, flooding), pollution, microplastics and more.  The adverse effects of climate change (CC) already affect millions of people with increased stress, food insecurity, loss of habitats, freshwater bankruptcy, migration etc.  CC is expected to get much worse over the next decades and threatens irreversible damage to global systems we rely on - the very foundations of human civilisation.  Urban areas are growing rapidly world-wide and cities are where pollution tends to be higher.  Air pollution, microplastics, chemicals in water all contribute to poor physical and mental health of people living in cities.  It is a moot point as to how long the earth will be able to support the current level of human population.

The three actors have set a scene when our physical, mental and environmental well-being are deeply threatened.  Any one threat is bad enough on its own but the synergy generated by the three is a matter of utmost concern.  

But first - let us look at the evidence and then discuss what options do we have.

EVIDENCE:  Until about year 1800, humans lived on earth without making a serious impact on the environment.  Emerging technologies engendered rapid increase in life expectancy and living standards.  Medical advances helped to double the life expectancy during the past 200 years.  Living in a rich country helped but significant improvements were seen globally. 

By the mid 20th century, the last scourge of infectious diseases (aka communicable diseases) was largely eliminated by the development of vaccination, antibiotics and public health measures.  However, the rise in longevity has  practically stopped now, and there are initial indications that we might be losing some of the gains made in the past 200 years. This brings us to the exponential increase of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) aka Chronic Diseases since about year 1960. The following three slides give a good idea about this transition: 

Another characteristic of NCDs is that the disease takes several decades to set in (before obvious symptoms appear); and the patient normally suffers from a loss of expected good health for a number of years (typically 10 to 12 years) before death.  While the longevity might still be 80 years, the person enjoys healthy life for only 65 to 70 years.  This is unfortunate and nullifies the spectacular gains made in the past 200 years. 

NCDs are the result of a person suffering from metabolic syndrome (MetS) which is described in Appendix 1.  

The chronic low grade inflammation, a hallmark of MetS, significantly increases the risk of developing cardiovascular heart disease (CVD), strokes, cancers, type 2 diabetes and dementia. The immune system becomes confused too and is likely to start attacking body's own organs - resulting in an increasing number of the so-called autoimmune diseases (AUTD).  The next slide shows how the occurrence of autoimmune diseases has increased since 1950.

Mental Health Disorders: In step with physical health, mental health has also seen negative impact over the past 50 years.  A study published in May 2026 in Lancet has found that between 1990 and 2023, mental health cases globally have increased by a worrisome amount.  They estimate that, in 2023, there were 1.17 billion cases of mental disorder globally; equivalent to 14,210 cases per 100,000 population.  This represents a 95.5% increase 33 years!  The mental disorders included in the study were anxiety, major depression, log-term depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, autism, conduct disorder, ADHD, anorexia & bulimia nervosa and others. 

The 2025 mental health report (U.K.) highlights that 20.2% adults are living with some mental health disorder.  The rates for 16 to 24 years old have increased from 17.5% in 2007 to 25.8% in 2023-24 - this is a 47% increase in 16 years!

It is apparent that globally the physical and mental health has significantly deteriorated over the past 50 years. These observations may be linked to some underlying causes that started around 1960s particularly the introduction of ultra-processed foods at industrial scale.  Artificial intelligence and environmental degradation are now reaching a stage that their adverse effects are starting to become significant.  It might not be too late to control the downward slide, but strong, globally co-ordinated actions are required.  

Let us look at the individual stress factors in somewhat more detail:

1.  Ultra-Processed Food (UPF):   Several recent publications have highlighted the many adverse effects of the transition from naturally prepared food to industrially processed edible stuff (1, 2).  More than 50% of our calories now come from UPF - food stuff that has undergone, at an industrial scale, processing that leaves the final product bearing little resemblance to the original ingredients.  In UPF, almost all nutrients have been replaced by preservatives, emulsifiers, hydrogenated oils, high fructose syrup, artificial colours and taste & flavour enhancers. These additives have been shown to have adverse health effects. Appendix 2 gives a couple of examples of the loss of nutritional content in UPF. 

UPF are industrially manufactured and share the following characteristics:

• UPF typically contain large quantity of sugar, fat, carbohydrates - a combination that is very appealing to human taste. 
• UPF are calorie dense
• UPF tend to be very low in fiber content - Fiber is the main food for gut microbiome.   
• UPF are designed to be softer, easier to eat and digest.  You eat them more quickly than traditional foods  - it is easy to overconsume UPF.
• UPF does not provide balanced nutrients - they contain large amounts of carbohydrates that are readily broken down in glucose spiking blood sugar levels.
• UPF are addictive and it is easy to overconsume them leading to weight gain and obesity in people.
• UPF are mass produced and have a long shelf life.  This makes them relatively inexpensive.  In developing countries, UPF easily replace the healthy traditional foods. The case-study of Muana, Brazil illustrates clearly how Big Food  is exploiting the poorer communities by pushing cheap, addictive UPF at a great cost in terms of the health of entire communities.
• Many of the additives in UPF adversely affect human health - some are even carcinogenic.
• Soft drinks and fruit juices are very highly processed with excessive amounts of free sugar that is instantly absorbed in the stomach. This spikes blood sugar levels leading to health issues (MetS). 

2. Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI):  Traditional Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been immensely helpful in almost all field of human activity.  It might be fair to call traditional AI a task-oriented intelligence.   It could only follow pre-defined rules and instructions (algorithms) in order to find the answer to a specific problem - AI did not have the power of independent thinking.  AI has been crucial in improving efficiency, and is embedded in countless systems we interact everyday. I list some examples where traditional AI plays a fundamental role:

Search engines/Virtual Assistants/Fraud Detection/SPAM Filters/Facial Recognition/Customer Service Chatbots/Predictive Text/Medical Imaging and Diagnostics/Autonomous Vehicles/Industrial Robots

Unlike traditional AI, GenAI is capable of independent thinking and generation of original concepts.  Recent developments in Generative AI (GenAI) opens up immense scope for innovation and creative use in personal and work space. Even though GenAI opens up great opportunities in innovation and research, there are red-flags pointing to potential damaging influence of GenAI on the way humans think and operate (ref). 

A comparison between Traditional AI and GenAI is useful in understanding why GenAI may in fact have negative influence on human creativity and seriously damage those human qualities that have distinguished us from other animals.  This I do in appendix 3 (For more details, please see OpenLearning at MIT paper, AI and GenAI). Here, we shall limit our focus to the way GenAI might affect psychological and cognitive health.  For a more general discussion please see 1, 2 , 3.  

The popularity of GenAI systems like ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, Claude, Character.AI has grown rapidly  - these systems are largely unregulated and there is growing concern about their psychological impact on users (see Ref).  Instances of users being encouraged to commit suicide, seek divorce etc. are frequently reported. 

A recent paper points to the mechanisms  through which GenAI chatbots may be increasing psychosis risk.  The next slide presents a brief analysis:

 The paper  "What these bots are saying is worsening delusions, and it's causing enormous harm" describes a number of case studies - not only young adolescents but also grown-ups are equally vulnerable when using GenAI conversational chatbots.

A recent paper highlights several areas of concern including cognition, critical thinking, mental health, social connections, body image, physical activity and sleep.

AI related technologies are advancing rapidly.  Clinical research, regulatory framework and ethical oversight are not able to keep up with the consequences of the rapidly growing use of Ai in our societies.  Tech companies are driven by the need to enhance share-holder returns and design their AI products to increase the user interaction time with their products.  It is important to give proper attention to user health and safety by the government regulators and the wider communities need to be better informed of the dangers of unfettered use of AI.

Cognitive Atrophy:  There’s growing concern that an over-reliance on AI could lead to cognitive decline (1, 2). Human creativity and original thinking owes a lot to the struggle and hard work one does in solving problems. 'Use it or lose it'  is definitely true when it comes to cognition - one needs to make effort to develop mental faculties.  GenAI provides a simple and easy way to find answers and saves us a lot of effort and hard work.  One can easily slide into a state when they stop trying to work out solutions themselves (loss of independent problem solving skills) - an overreliance on AI.  This creates an addiction syndrome and also atrophies our cognitive abilities. 

 

3. Environmental Degradation (EnvDeg):  Humans have put earth's environment under great stress - the possibility of  irreversible harmful changes to the environment are now routinely discussed.  In simple terms, human population and consumption have been growing exponentially, and earth's capacity to sustain such consumption is already vastly exceeded.  This has resulted in environmental degradation that manifests itself in various forms - global warming and pollution are the most talked-about changes.  Projecting 50 years in the future, it may be stated with confidence that lives of billions of people will be imperilled by catastrophes like sea-level rise, extreme heat, droughts, flooding, wild fires, increased air pollution, micro-plastics, freshwater availability etc.  In the hotter earth, vast areas might become uninhabitable with millions of people forced to migrate.  Sea level rise and other climate stresses could result in over 2 billion refugees by the year 2100. Extreme weather events, much stronger tides, wild fires etc. will create massive problems for governments to manage.  I give two examples relating to water and food insecurity in a hotter world:

Freshwater Bankruptcy:  The world is moving towards a situation when we shall not have enough freshwater to meet all our needs.  We would have exhausted most of our freshwater reservoirs over the next few decades  - this will affect agriculture, industries and personal water availability.  In February 2026, I had published a detailed analysis of freshwater insecurity and refer you to my blog to appreciate the situation. This is a great example of how even the developed countries are being affected now by the overexploitation of earth's resources (See also  https://uk.yahoo.com/news/colorado-river-nearing-collapse-trump-093000969.html).

Rice Production:  Rice is a staple crop for >50% of the world population and 90% rice is cultivated in Asia's paddy fields. The demand for rice has quadrupled over the past 60 years as shown in the slide and almost 800 million tons of rice is produced annually - mostly in Asia.  Over 560 million people in poverty (income less that $1.25 per day) live in rice producing areas (see ref). 

In the warming world, serious disruption is likely to be caused to the amount of rice that can be cultivated.  There are several effects at play here.  Firstly, rice photosynthesis shuts down at 40C - the current rice production is limited to places where the mean annual temperature is below 28C and the maximum temperature in the warm season stays on average below 33C (1, 2). 

Not all places on earth warm at the same rate - this results in weather patterns shifting  - fertile area may experience drought and vice versa.  Rice is a water intensive crop and rice paddies are built over centuries and it will not be possible to just start growing rice elsewhere.

Additionally, sea level rise will likely inundate low-lying rice growing areas, like Bangladesh, with salt water.  This will not only destroy the crops but also leach harmful toxic minerals like arsenic into the ground water and soil.  

It is not difficult to understand that in a few decades, the life as we know now could be seriously disrupted.  The mental and physical stress created will be difficult to manage.  Geopolitics will be a nightmare and one can visualise countries going to war on water and territorial disputes. 

Unfortunately, most world governments do not see EnvDeg  as an immediate threat and are reluctant to take effective measures to address the problems.  Also, EnvDeg will affect developing countries much more severely  - it is the developed countries that have and continue to cause the problem. However, developed countries will not be immune to the effects of the worsening global environment and many traumatic events are already happening and affecting the lives of people in the rich countries (1, 2, 3). 

An additional burden is air, water and land pollution throughout the world.  How microplastics affect human health is not at all clear but the first indications are that they are not benign and can cause health problems (see reference).   

The main takeaway from the above discussion is that the stress level globally will be significantly raised with billions of people living as refugees and most of the rest coping with unpredictable climate with extreme weather events.    

Discussion:  The recent developments (UPF and GenAI) are chipping away human faculties of good health, creativity and enterprise against a backdrop of rapid environmental decay.  Many studies have highlighted these issues and have emphasized the need of urgent action.  Powerful industrial interests (food, drink and energy companies) stand in the way of taking meaningful actions.  Big food and energy companies use tactics pioneered by the tobacco industry; for example, in the case of food companies, the strategies might involve (1, 2):

•  Lobbying governments to water down and delay public health measures
•  Advocating voluntary self-regulation
•  Funding research and advisory panels to create confusion regarding the direct link between their products and disease.
•  Sponsor sport events, health programs to give the impression of supporting health in the community.
• Emphasize individual responsibilities, framing obesity and ill health as personal failures.   

The energy production (fossil fuel) companies use almost exactly the same sheet as the food companies to delay meaningful regulations, and create misinformation & doubt about the impact of their activities on the environment.  I refer you to a couple of good references (1, 2).

Regulating AI is more complicated. Artificial Intelligence has driven unprecedented human progress in work and personal domains; however, heavy reliance on GenAI can cause cognitive atrophy and other psychiatric issues.  One must be careful in how AI is used and certainly urgent regulations are required for limiting the use of AI.  The 30% rule for AI  has been suggested as a guiding principle  -  the rule says that AI should handle 70% of repetitive and preparatory work, while humans retain 30% of oversight, creativity and judgement - a sensible looking compromise.  The difficulty is that the capabilities of AI are changing extremely rapidly and it is not always possible to know what is the best way forward.

I welcome any comments about what one can/should do to manage the situation discussed in this article.

Appendix 1:  

Appendix 2:

Appendix 3:

Why Do People Commit Financial Fraud? The 10-80-10 'Rule' and The Fraud Triangle

 On 23rd June 2026, Peter Murrell was handed a five plus years sentence for embezzling over £400,000 of the Scottish National Party funds - he was the party's chief executive from 2001 to 2023 .  The theft happened over a period longer than ten years and funded Murrell's lavish life style. Full details of the case may be reached here.

The question is: With an annual family income of nearly £250,000 and so much at stake in terms of their very high public profile, why Murrell would feel the need to indulge in criminality that led to his prison sentence and fall from grace for his wife Nicola Sturgeon - a highly respected First Minister of Scotland?  Unfortunately, financial crimes are all too common, and have happened in all societies & over all periods of time. 

Financial fraud (FF) is generally intentional, planned over a significant period and rarely a one-off - it is often repeated.  FF should be distinguished from violent crimes that, in most cases, are unplanned and committed impulsively in the heat of the moment. Violent crimes have a visible signature while financial frauds may be hidden, normally undetectable for long periods and hence the possibility of repeating.

The question I want to understand is - why do  people commit financial crimes? But first the statistics - people who commit financial frauds roughly fall under three categories; the so-called 10-80-10 'rule'.  It is shown in the next slide: 

(please click on the slide to see full page view)

Vast majority (80% + 10%) of people are mostly law-abiding and tend to have no previous criminal record.  It is interesting to explore why anyone in the 80% group will consider committing fraud - they are not bad actors, so what circumstances will encourage them to commit fraud.

The Fraud Triangle:  Inspired by Svend Riemer's work (1941),  the fraud triangle was developed by Donald Cressey (1953) in connection with his research into why trusted employees commit financial frauds.  It is a model that is widely used to identify (and also mitigate) fraud risk.  The fraud triangle is explained in the next slide: 

The fraud triangle is a concept that highlights motivation, opportunity & rationalization as the three conditions that encourage fraud.  Absence of any of the three conditions reduces the overall fraud risk - ideally if an organisation can address all three conditions then the risk of financial fraud will be significantly curtailed. 

'Opportunity' is the most obvious element that an organisation can control - good management practices can much reduce this aspect of the fraud triangle.  Besides doing everything to minimise opportunities to commit fraud, organisations must also take any reports of possible irregularities seriously and conduct thorough investigation.

'Motivation' and 'Rationalization' appear to be employee specific but there is a lot that the organisation can do to alleviate these conditions.  It really boils down to knowing your employees well on an individual level - what are their expectations regarding promotions, pay rise, job satisfaction etc.    

Employees should feel  socially connected with rest of the team and not feel isolated. 

Unfortunately, the current business environment is generally moving in the wrong direction - with greater emphasis on productivity increase, cost-cutting and increased competition. Businesses are putting additional pressures on their employees. Senior managers, themselves under pressure, are unable to form a bond of trust with their staff.  Most employees are working much longer hours that they are contracted for - adversely affecting their family life.  Digital messaging and emails have extended the working day to evenings and weekends as well. Many workers are on zero-hour contracts and living paycheque to paycheque. Money is also talked about much more in the news, social media etc.; money worries dominate a lot of conversations. These developments elevate the general stress levels with money playing a more significant role in peoples' lives.  These situations can drive up the motivation and rationalization aspects of the fraud triangle.

Final Word:  This feature has been somewhat unusual for my choice of subjects - but it was a compelling news item and deserved a closer look.  Interesting that the cost of police investigation of Peter Murrell case was 2.7 million pounds.  Keeping him in jail for five years will also be very costly.  However, it is important that these cases are investigated and perpetrators brought to justice to maintain confidence in the due processes of law and order.  

Several concerns about Murrell's behaviour were raised at various times but these were ignored and not investigated.  I am sure that the fact that Murrell's wife, Nicola was the first minister has nothing to do with it - after all she was not even aware of the existence of the very expensive luxurious motor home that Murrell had acquired!

Dude Numbers - Interesting Numbers Developed Following Henry Dudeney's Puzzle Number 114

Category:  Self Indulgence 

Henry Dudeney's fantastic book Amusements in Mathematics (available for free download) was published in 1917.  The book is a brilliant collection of over 400 brainteasers - fun for nerds!  Every puzzle presents a challenge; answers are provided - solutions are generally not discussed.  In my folder, I still have a bank of puzzles I cannot solve!

Puzzle 114 describes Curious Numbers; in this feature I wish to discuss this puzzle and generalise the idea to extend the challenge and curiosity.  

But first - what are curious numbers - I looked at Google Search and they directed me to the Penguin Dictionary of Curious & Interesting Numbers.  It seems there is a plethora of Curious Numbers - so we need to find a different name  - to acknowledge Henry Dudeney, I think Dude numbers is a good choice (I didn't like the other option of Dud numbers!).

Puzzle 114 is described in slide 1:

I really like the Dude numbers in slides 5 and  6 - both a and b come out to be the same numbers - amazing!  

Actually there is a pattern emerging from the study of these cases:

In slide 6, for the cube and square combination of the same digit p, one has  

                     m = p +1 and k = p  

N is then equal to p^3 - k or  p^3 - p = p(p+1)(p-1). 

Divide by m = p+1 and add p to get p^2 !!!

This algorithm may be used to build Dude numbers for all natural numbers.

I hope you have enjoyed reading this blog.  The possibilities of finding many more patterns are obvious  - let me know if you find any.

I am impressed by the genius of Henry Dudeney who had collected a fantastic range of puzzles.

FreshWater Bankruptcy Is Here - Will Soon Be Impossible to Reverse - Is It Already Too Late?

Category:  Community Education

"No water, no life.  No blue, no green.  No ocean, no us"          ... Sylvia Earle 

Freshwater bankruptcy is a state where water systems can no longer be restored to their previous healthier baselines due to over-extraction and pollution.                          ... United Nations

Ten years ago, I had analysed in detail the situation regarding global water crisis.  This feature is encouraged by the recent UN Report on the dire situation of freshwater availability in many regions of the world.

Freshwater is one of the four pillars essential for survival - the others are food, energy and the climate. Humans have adversely impacted all of them - in a big way - and we have been doing this for at least 200 years.  In the beginning, developing countries and areas prone to droughts are affected the most, but it is becoming a global problem and all countries will be severely affected.

Freshwater represents one of the many 'nature services' provided to humans free of charge. Nature's ecosystem has enormous ability to repair themselves and reliably supply us with life-sustaining facilities (Appendix 1 presents the hydrological (water) cycle to explain this process). It is estimated that  nature ecosystem services are worth $125 trillions annually.  The freshwater system, in particular has been most adversely affected and has seen some irreversible damage - for example, depleted & contaminated aquifers, dried wetlands, melted glaciers, land subsidence etc.  We have now reached a stage that these systems can never be stored to their baseline condition. 

This article discusses some of the issues pertaining to freshwater availability.

The amount of freshwater (2.5% of total) on Earth is fixed.  30% of the freshwater is in the ground  - most people use rivers as the source of freshwater but rivers only supply about 2100 km^3, a mere 0.006% of the total freshwater.  The slide shows how water is used by different sectors:

The demand of freshwater has been increasing rapidly for several decades - such demand arises from personal use, agriculture and industries. As the human population and living standards increase, more and more water is demanded, and it is understandable that one reaches limits when dealing with a finite resource like freshwater. The slide shows how water usage had increased during the 20th century.

It is worth looking at some numbers projected for water demand in the future.  With the world population approaching 10 billion in 2050 and  global GDP doubling to 200 trillion US$, it is expected that demand for water-intensive foods such as dairy, eggs and meat will increase significantly. Water demand for manufacturing is also expected to increase by 400% over the year 2000 levels.  OECD projects that global freshwater demand in 2050 will be 55% higher than in year 2000 - that is an extra 2000 km^3 of freshwater to be supplied every year.

Many major renewable freshwater resources (rivers) are at their limit to what they can supply -  Colorado, Ganges, Nile, Tigris-Euphrates and Yellow River are considered 'closed' - all their annually available renewable freshwater is already committed. How the increased demand in the future will be met?

Scarcity, Stress, Crisis and Bankruptcy - What is the difference?  It is common to talk about freshwater scarcity and stress  - we have heard these terms often enough, and particularly in the OECD countries these terms do not make a lot of impression about how serious the problem is.  To describe the situation as a crisis is more potent - a crisis is an emergency/unstable period that is characterized by high stress, danger and uncertainty - but short term. By proper management and immediate actions, a crisis may be reversed - and this is what humans think they have been doing  to solve the global freshwater crisis over the past few decades - unsuccessfully.  

What happens if the crisis never ends?

Bankruptcy is more familiar in context of finance and refers to the situation when an individual cannot meet their financial obligations - outgoings cannot be covered by income and savings. The UN Report uses the term water bankruptcy to describe the current global situation, as it is obvious that now we are not able to replace the amount of freshwater that is being used.  The income (water from rivers and rainwater) is insufficient to meet the demands.  The demands are being met by the withdrawal of ever greater amounts from our savings (groundwater aquifers) that are being depleted at an alarming rate.  Important to realise that ground water takes thousands of years to collect and most groundwater sources are replenished at a rate nowhere near to those required to maintain their current levels.  Also, the situation is irreversible  - once the savings are gone - there will be no way to build them up in a sensible timescale.  Freshwater bankruptcy represents the situation when the income (renewable sources - rivers) is inadequate and the savings (depleted groundwater aquifers) cannot be replenished.  The world cannot live off the savings (groundwater) to cover the shortfalls - things can keep going for a while, but quietly moving toward collapse. 

There is no escaping the conundrum - the world is in a 'post-crisis' state of failure-to-manage.

The Situation is Worse Than It Appears: There are many actors that threaten the amount & quality of future freshwater availability.  A major driver is climate change -  along with increasing pollution - it will have a serious impact on the availability of usable water.  

With worsening climate change, weather and rainfall patterns will change around the world - droughts will become more common in some places and floods in others.

Glaciers are Melting: Glaciers store 30% of freshwater and are rapidly melting - these 'water towers' will in a few decades have much reduced flow affecting at least 2 billion people who rely on the rivers funded by meltwater. Even under the 1.5C scenario (considered too optimistic), 50% of the glaciers are expected to disappear by 2100 with peak melting between 2035 and 2050.  The loss of glaciers is likely to be much more rapid - a 4C rise will result in 83% of the glaciers disappearing by 2100.

European Alps have lost about 39% of their volume since year 2000.  Himalayas have lost 40% of its mass in the last 200 years but the rate of ice loss has accelerated tenfold in the 21st century.

Sea Levels are Rising:  Sea levels are rising due to global warming.  This causes higher tides and stronger storm surges pushing larger amount of salty sea water inlands into coastal areas.  

Saltwater intrusion contaminates coastal aquifers rendering the groundwater unsuitable for drinking and irrigation.  Higher sea levels drive saltwater into rivers, estuaries and wetlands damaging freshwater ecosystems and contaminating water sources and weakening infra-structures.  A good example is the delta region in Bangladesh where sea level rise is accompanied by the delta region subsidence amplifying such adverse effects.  Seawater causes arsenic to leach from minerals.  Some 20% of Bangladesh land area has been contaminated with increased salinity and release of arsenic into groundwater aquifers.  This has already affected water supply to 78 million people.  Miami and other delta regions are already being affected by sea level rise as described here. 

Pollution is Increasing:  The increasing levels of chemical, nutrient and bacterial contamination of both surface water and groundwater resources is a major driver of global water scarcity.  Even if the total volume of water stays constant, pollution reduces the amount of available useful water.

Chemical Pollution: Pesticides, fertilizers, industrial waste, untreated sewage and  plastics contaminate the water systems, making the water unsuitable for human consumption or agricultural irrigation.  Additionally, nitrogen and phosphorus in fertilizers trigger algal blooms which deplete oxygen levels and kill aquatic life.

Pollutants leach into groundwater aquifers which makes them unusable for human consumption.

Pollution not only reduces the quantity of usable water directly but also undermines the natural processes that replenish and maintain our water resources.

Agriculture Has Been Expanding: To feed the increasing population, focused on even better living standards, requires ever-bigger agricultural sector with correspondingly greater demands on freshwater supplies.  Globally, this has been highly damaging in many ways.  

For example, wetlands (a.k.a. Earth's kidneys) of size of European Union have been drained to create farmland - 35% of global wetlands have been lost during the past 50 years.  Wetlands filter water of pollutants - loss of wetlands stops this natural filtration process leading to increased water contamination.  Wetlands soak water during wet periods and release it during dry season - their loss makes droughts more severe.  Coastal wetlands (mangroves) protect coastal farmlands from storm surges and saltwater intrusions.  Wetlands are important breeding grounds for fish and habitats for pollinators.  Their loss results in reduced fish, bees/insect populations - essential for agriculture.  Loss of wetland undermines agricultural sustainability and food security. 

Freshwater Lakes are Shrinking Rapidly:  Lakes are important reservoirs of freshwater - they hold 0.26% of total water and 87% of the surface freshwater.  Several major freshwater lakes have experienced dramatic water loss in the past 50 years - losses driven by water extraction for agriculture, human consumption and climate-driven evaporation. Here are some examples:

The Aral Sea:  Once the fourth largest inland body of water had completely dried out by 2014.  Its water was diverted to grow cotton.

Lake Chad:  Once one of Africa's largest lakes, it has shrunk by 90% in the last 50 years - from 25000 km^2 in 1963 to 2000 km^2 in 2015 due to reduced rainfall and high population water demand.

Lake Urmia:  Has lost 80% of its volume since 1970s.  The shrinkage is due to damming of rivers, intensive irrigation, and climate change.

The Dead Sea:  The water level in the Dead Sea has been falling by more than one meter per year for the past 50 years due to diversion of the Jordan River and other industrial demands. 

 

Besides increasing demand for freshwater, an important reason for shrinking lakes is climate induced evaporation from their surface.

How to Manage Water Bankruptcy: Before making any decisions about freshwater use, it is important to accept that the world is facing an irreversible, systemic crisis rather than a temporary shortage.  We also have to manage water demand within the new reality that less water is available now that in the past.  

Put it another way:

(1)  We are in deficit:  We are now using more water than the amount ecosystem can replace, and 

(2) The deficit is getting bigger:  Natural systems that supply freshwater have been damaged and continue to be degraded further. It is not possible to supply freshwater at historic levels. 

Good, strong and focussed management is required to avoid the dire consequences confronting humanity.  Let us discuss what may be possible:

1. Overuse and Wastage:  We cannot continue to use water at the current levels.  There is too much wastage with insufficient emphasis on efficient use of water.  

Agriculture and industry use >90% of freshwater and must provide most of the savings.  One can adopt more efficient agricultural practices (flood irrigation is too wasteful), grow less-water-intensive crops, reduce meat consumption (beef production requires 10 to 20 times more water than plant-based grains), minimize food wastage (33 - 40% of food is wasted globally every year).  

On the industrial side, much savings may be made by wastewater recycling, adopting water-efficient technologies like smart sensors, air-based cooling and reducing water leaks.  Renewable energy generation is much less water intensive than fossil fuel or nuclear power plants - saving up to 95% water requirements.  Industries are also very well placed to collect rainwater - as are most house holds. In the urban context, leaking water-supply pipes are a big drain on water resources - the water supply network has long been neglected and must be modernised.

In many areas, water is not priced at its true cost - it is often undervalued and treated as too cheap.  Water is widely subsidized for agricultural use in most parts of the world.  This results in unnecessary wastage in flood irrigation.  While water subsidies are often intended to support food security and rural development, it may no longer be feasible to continue providing them.  Growing crops that are less water intensive and better irrigation practices will be helpful. 

2. Restore Nature-Based Sources:  Almost all freshwater is a gift from the ecosystem to which we have done serious damage.  Imperative that we protect and restore ecosystems like wetlands & soil that store and regulate water. Groundwater aquifers are our 'savings' - we need to safeguard them and maintain their levels - only withdraw water that can be replenished on an annual basis.  It is possible to track groundwater depletion and water quality in real-time.

RIVERS: Pollution, from agricultural run-off (pesticides, excessive fertilizer use), untreated sewage discharge, industrial (chemicals, heavy metals) and urban & household waste (pharmaceuticals, microplastics, tyre-wear particles), has degraded the quality of water in most rivers.  

Rivers tend to follow a natural course - this has been disrupted by building dams, reservoirs, straightening channels.  Large scale deforestation has caused soil erosion and the sedimentation clogs up rivers. In most cases, populations downstream now receive very little water (Colorado river often does not even reach the Gulf of California).  

It is important to monitor and put strict regulations in place to restore the health of the rivers.  It will not be a simple task and big sacrifices in terms of convenience and monetary costs might be needed but will be vital for preventing further degradation of the ecosystem.

3. Political, Social and Ethical Dimensions:  Managing water bankruptcy will be a long painful process.  Unfortunately, people in developing countries are often affected most severely by water crises and suffer immensely.  Developed countries have largely escaped the water scarcity thus far but are beginning to appreciate the worsening situation (see Appendix 2 for situation regarding Colorado River in USA).  Water bankruptcy is also best dealt with at the global level to avoid the high probability of future water-wars and exported pollution through rivers etc.  

In this context, one needs to protect vulnerable groups like small farms, indigenous people, isolated communities and of course people living in drought-prone areas.  Strong political leadership at the global level will be needed to see through progress to solve this urgent problem - by all accounts the problem is only going to get worse in the next few decades.  A good reason for being pessimistic is climate change  - I discuss this in the next section.

4. Climate Change is the One to Watch: With all the good intentions to manage freshwater bankruptcy, we might be frustrated if climate change is not sensibly addressed.  I discuss some of the climate change impacts on freshwater availability.  

Extreme Events:  Each degree rise in global temperature increases water content of the atmosphere by 7%. Warmer atmosphere is also more stormy and one would expect more  intense storms (already evident at 1.5C warming) rather than gentle rain.  Higher rainfall intensity will cause more runoff (water ends up in rivers causing flooding and eventually reaching the oceans) instead of percolating into the soil and recharging aquifers.  This is bad news as climate change is not being managed properly - things could get much worse.

Shifting Weather Patterns:  The world is warming but not uniformly over all regions.  It would be reasonable to expect that weather patterns will change - areas that received lot of rainfall might experience droughts and the other way round.  Also traditionally dry areas may get drier.  All this can have severe effects on how/where rivers flow, aquifer recharging, flooding.  Consequences for freshwater supply can be unpredictable with uncertain agricultural yields.  

Soil is losing more water: As the earth warms, soil loses more water. This not only reduces the store of freshwater (our savings are diminished) but also affects agriculture yields.  Additionally, higher temperatures during summer (beyond about 46C) in tropical regions will be consequential in reducing photosynthetic yields.

Glaciers are Melting Faster: Glaciers hold 69% of the world's freshwater - the melt water provides livelihood for over 2 billion people living downstream in the planes. This is particularly welcome as slow release of water into rivers during the hottest and driest part of the year is vitally important for agriculture. 

With rising temperatures, glaciers are melting faster (also there is less snowfall in many areas).  Quickly melting glaciers might actually increase river flows for a short period of time - may be a couple of decades - but then melt rates will plummet and lack of freshwater availability will be catastrophic in many ways.  Glaciers in Himalayan range, Andes and Alps are all melting faster and share many of the fates described above.  

Other undesirable effects of glacier-melt is that water scarcity will cause populations to extract more groundwater leading to overexploitation and potential desertification.  Water quality will diminish as reduced flow will concentrate pollutants and in fact release previously buried contaminants.  Hydroelectric energy generation will also be impacted adversely.

End Note: this article has addressed issues related to freshwater.  It is quite obvious that the ecosystem does not work in isolation - water, food, climate and energy are all intimately related - and all of them are essential for life.  Humans have been short-sighted not to understand this and over the past 200 years they have mismanaged and destroyed the gift that nature gave them.  We not only face freshwater bankruptcy; climate bankruptcy is not far behind - several of the climate tipping points have already been passed (tipping points are points of no return).  Food production is fundamentally dependent on water, climate and energy - total food production could be affected in the next few decades.  

Unfortunately, the geopolitical situation appears to be heading in a direction that is not  conducive for looking at the solutions in a calm and co-operative manner.  It does not bode well for future generations - the concept of sustainability has not survived mankind's ego.

Thanks for reading ...

Appendix 1:  The Water (Hydrological) Cycle

Notice that snow/ice on glaciers melts to provide additional surface water (rivers).  This is not shown on the diagram.

Appendix 2: Colorado River - A case study

Colorado river water crisis provides a great example of over-exploitation of a natural resource.  Colorado river provides water to 40 million people in seven states in Western USA. The overexploitation of the river has reduced reservoir levels to extremely low levels. 

 

There are many recent reports that discuss Colorado River water crisis, and I quote from a September 2025 report:

Consumptive water use in the Colorado River Basin continues to outpace natural flow. The dwindling reserve stored in reservoirs that has long sustained this shortfall might soon be exhausted. Immediate steps should be taken to reduce current consumptive uses in the Upper and Lower Basins ... The entire basin is in agreement that we must balance our water use with the natural supply. Despite laudable efforts, we are currently not doing so, at least in part because the hydrology has been unforgiving. Unfortunately, however, this is the hydrology we must plan for, with the knowledge that the next few years could be even worse. While inflows and uses during the next year cannot be predicted with certainty, using the past year as a proxy for the coming year makes for prudent, conservative planning. (essentially start to plan for water bankruptcy)

Obviously, developed countries are also not immune to water bankruptcy!

Also see https://uk.yahoo.com/news/colorado-river-nearing-collapse-trump-093000969.html