Are the Young More Creative/Innovative? Not Really - Another Example of Perils of Perception

Creativity is to come up with new and useful ideas. Innovation is the successful implementation of those ideas.

People under 35 are the people who make change happen; people over 45 basically die in terms of new ideas...                                                                                                                                                                        Vinod Khosla (Venture Capitalist)

Age is, of course, a fever chill; that every physicist must fear.
He is better dead than living still; when he is past his thirtieth year.                                                                                                                    Paul Dirac (1933 Nobel Laureate in Physcis)

Mark Zuckerberg became CEO of Facebook (one of the biggest companies in the world) at age 23, Gauss and Ramanujan died at age 28 and 32 years respectively, but both contributed enormously to the field of mathematics.  When I talk to people, the common perception seems to be that the young are more creative than older adults - but is this true?  Do the facts bear this out?  Look a little more carefully and the reality is completely different. This perception is a classic example of how our brain overestimates the significance of outliers.  From the exceptional achievments of a few young innovators, we start to believe in a general rule. Once the society starts to believe this perception - decisions are made on wrong premises and potentially can be very damaging - decisions like which projects should receive venture capital fund, should middle aged employees be trained, we need to get 'new blood' to move forward etc. 

I want to disprove the myth of 'young are more creative' by (i) giving examples of Nobel Laureates in the sciences, (ii) discuss evidence that relative to their younger colleagues, older business entrepreneurs contribute far more to innovation and wealth creation.  
In Part 2, we shall try to understand why the myth of 'greater creativity of the young' came about and the reasons that this perception is based on false premise; we shall also identify several factors that contribute to make people more effective innovators. 

Nobel Laureates:  In the past 118 years, about 900 Nobels have been awarded to people in sciences and other fields for outstanding, original achievements.  The statistical information available is impeccable and has been thoroughly analysed. The youngest recepient, Malala Yousafzai, was age 17 and the oldest, Arthur Ashkin, was 96 years (Ref, see also).  The following table summarises the data (1, 2) of the mean age of Nobel Laureates in Sciences:

 Age (years) at          All Awards    Chemistry     Medicine       Physics

Time of Award                  60          58±25          58±30         56±32

Prize-Winning Research  39±8.5       40.2±8.5     39.9±7.9      37.2±9.2

HighestDegree Earned    26.1±3.4    25.5±3.2      26.7±3.6    26.2±3.4            

What is important for our discussion is the age at which the prize-winning research was done, and it is nearly constant at 39±8 for all disciplines.  

Interestingly, we note from the table that after receiving their highest university degree, the laureates, on average, wait 16 years for their best work to be performed and another 20 years before the work is acknowledged for the award.  This is no coincidence - Malcolm Gladwell, in his book Outliers - the STORY of SUCCESS - discusses how it takes 10,000 hours of hard work for a person to reach maturity in all fields of endeavour; this amount of effort is required to start contributing at your highest level - it does not seem to matter what field you are in - it could be music, arts, digital technology, medicine etc. Besides hard work, other factors pertaining to your family, colleagues, prevailing cultural norms also determine how quickly and securely you get to be the best in what you are aiming for. The slide shows the effect of the environment on your performance:

Innovation in Business:  Entrepreneurs, managers, scientists and engineers innovate meaningful, marketable products and services that create wealth and improve quality of life of the nation.  Such innovations are based on knowledge, expertise, opportunity, government policies, but most of all on hard work. (we all know of the old adage: success is 5% inspiration and 95% perspiration). 

Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) in the USA have recently conducted, in 2016, a comprehensive study of award-winning innovators and international patent applicants.  A similar 2009 study in Japan broadly supports the conclusions of  the ITIF study.  I shall use the data from these studies to discuss the age profile of ace innovators in the USA and Japan. 
The ITIF study have found that innovators tend to be experienced and highly educated; and most hold advanced degrees in science and technology              (76.3% had a postgraduate degree -- MSc or PhD).

The following table lists the median age of innovators in different sectors:

                  R&D 100 Awards                     46 years
                  Large Tech Companies             44
                  Life Sciences                           50
                  Information Technology            53
                  Material Sciences                     47

An even better indicator of innovation is the granting of patents which are more likely to create wealth and success: 

The situation in Japan is similar:

Japanese inventors appear to be about 8 years younger than in USA.  This might be due to much greater emphasis in Japan on academic work at  school and university level and Japanese workers retire early.  However, both in Japan and the USA the quality of patents, according to their domestic economic value, is much superior for inventors in more senior age group (see the following slide)

Various studies have shown that the situation is the same in other OECD countries with older workers innovating far more than younger employees.

It should be appreciated that Nobel Prize Winners indulge in largely academic pursuits, fundamental research - without worrying about wealth creation; while for inventors in industries the main focus is wealth creation.  These are two very different groups of innovators, but as we have discussed above and the following slide summarises, the age of innovation is surprising similar in the two groups.  While age appears to be a significant factor; other important factors, that help people to innovate more effectively, are also in play.  

In this first part of my blog, I have found that people in sciences and business are most innovative at about age 40 years.   It is only later in life that the most impactful innovations are made.  There are some instances when young people in their twenties have made significant contributions but this must be looked at with correct perspective.

In Part 2 of the blog I shall address several questions like:

(i)  What factors help to make a person more innovative?
(ii) The role of IQ  - are people with higher IQ more innovative?
(iii) Why the mean age for innovation might be increasing?


Thanks for reading.