Serendipity is the faculty of making fortunate and unexpected discoveries by accident --- Oxford English Dictionary (OED)
Sagacity is the quality of having or showing understanding and the ability to make good judgements. --- Cambridge Dictionary
The word serendipity was coined by Horace Walpole in 1754 in a letter to his friend where he recounted a Persian fairy tale 'The Three Princes of Serendip' in which the princes were always making discoveries by accident and sagacity. Accidents become discoveries because of the sagacity. In Appendix 1, I reproduce this charming story.
Serendipity - smooth, pleasing and sweet sounding - has been called one of the most beautiful words of the English language. Life is full of fortunate accidents and pleasant surprises - one only has to have awareness/good judgement to own them when they come your way (have sagacity). Serendipity is the occurrence of surprising & valuable events that were not being sought, often combining chance with sagacity (wisdom/insight).
There is no aspect of life that is untouched by serendipitous happenings - from finding your soulmate at the airport because you missed the flight, or being awarded Nobel Prize by noticing a completely unexpected flicker on a fluorescent screen metres away (discovery of X-rays).
The idea that chance plays an important role in the process of discovery is much older than the use of the word serendipity by Walpole to describe it. In fact, Robert Hooke in 1679 wrote: " ......it will be much better to embrace the influence of Providence and to be diligent in the inquiry of everything we meet with. For we shall quickly find that the number of considerable observations and inventions this way collected will a hundred-fold outstrip that are found by design."
Curiocity, Perception, Cognitive Biases & Dogma:
Louis Pasteur said 'In the field of observation, chance favours only the prepared mind'. A chance accidental observation will remain that if the observer does not notice, question and follow through the unexpected finding (exercise perception). A prepared mind is able to recognise the potential that others might ignore/discard. Curiosity drives the observer to investigate the event/result more in depth resulting in valuable discoveries.
However, not every chance observation may be converted into valuable discovery nor everybody is curious and prepared enough to question/investigate the chance offered (not sagacious enough). How can sagacity be encouraged and developed? First, we look into a couple of impediments - our cognitive biases and dogmatic thinking - it is important to enhance cognitive flexibility and actively challenge dogmas (rigid mindset, beliefs based on faith or authority).
We react to what is happening in the world outside according to our perceptions. These perceptions are interpretation by our brain of the sensory signals mediated by numerous cognitive biases. The result is that our perception of the world outside almost always represents a 'modified reality'.
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It is not surprising that in majority of situations, we fail to identify the importance of weak cues because they are overwhelmed by the cognitive biases that we all carry with us (cognitive biases are essential for survival in the complex world, and they are there for a reason). The role of sagacity is of paramount importance and one needs to resist the 'obvious' interpretation because it is easier and less controversial. Following Kahneman, in making decisions our brain ignores much of the incoming information to make quick decisions (system 1 thinking) in preference to the more energy intensive process of analysing the signals and then reaching a better/firmer conclusion (system 2 thinking) - this might happen in >90% of the decisions we make everyday.
Overriding cognitive biases (creating cognitive flexibility) is not easy. Such biases are deep rooted - I give an example (The Jastrow Illusion) in the following:
(click on the slide for full page image)
Two identical sized rail-track pieces look very different in size when viewed as in the figure. In my lecture, I asked a student to measure the two tracks with a string - they are exactly the same size. (I encourage you to measure them yourself). The interesting part is that even though our brain knows that the tracks are identical, it refuses to accept that because of the built-in way it interprets visual signals. The brain continues to ignore the factual information provided.
It is interesting to explore how one can encourage behaviours leading to serendipity - Reference is a good place to start. Cognitive biases help us navigate the world safely with ease and efficiently - while not perfect, they have helped human species to survive and indeed flourish. What one needs to enhance cognitive flexibility is a programme of 'improvement' in this sphere.
One needs to venture out of their comfort zone - learn to accept ambiguities and contradictions that will help the brain to adapt to unexpected situations.
A healthy brain is most desirable - brain training exercises, solving puzzles, exercise, good nourishing diet will help.
Mindfulness/meditation improve focus and attention that improves flexible reactions to new situations (helps to be more open-minded).
Learn new skills - a new language for example to improve neuroplasticity.
Besides improving the internal brain environment, much may be achieved by paying attention to external factors. Interacting with people/co-workers from different fields is always helpful in moving away from one's fixed biases and dogmas.
I end this section by giving an example of how the input from an authority can influence one's decisions:
End Note: Many great discoveries have been made where serendipity has played a major role. Many such discoveries have advanced our knowledge and been crucial to the welfare of the human race. New research fields like nuclear physics, antibiotics etc owe their emergence to serendipitous discoveries. Indeed, every field has benefitted from serendipitous discoveries and almost a quarter of the Nobel Prizes have been awarded to such accidental discoveries - and that is only since the year 1900. Many ground breaking inventions and discoveries since historic times have contributed to the welfare and progress of our species. In Part 2, I shall list some of the serendipitous discoveries in sciences and other fields of research.
Of course, serendipity plays a pivotal role in our daily lives and many stories are told about lucky accidents that led to happy conclusions.
In the end, I wish to point out that many a times, we fail to notice/appreciate the accidental break that is offered to us and we are worse off for that. A fascinating example relates to Irene and Frederic Joliot-Curie who - not once but two times - failed to own the observations in their experiments with the result that they lost two opportunities of winning a Nobel Prize. I shall discuss more examples of such 'negative serendipity' in Part 2.
Appendix 1: The story is reproduced from Wiki
"In ancient times there existed in the country of Serendippo, in the Far East, a great and powerful king by the name of Giaffer. He had three sons who were very dear to him. And being a good father and very concerned about their education, he decided that he had to leave them endowed not only with great power, but also with all kinds of virtues of which princes are particularly in need."
The father searches out the best possible tutors. "And to them he entrusted the training of his sons, with the understanding that the best they could do for him was to teach them in such a way that they could be immediately recognized as his very own."
When the tutors are pleased with the excellent progress that the three princes make in the arts and sciences, they report it to the king. He, however, still doubts their training, and summoning each in turn, declares that he will retire to the contemplative life leaving them as king. Each politely declines, affirming the father's superior wisdom and fitness to rule.
The king is pleased, but fearing that his sons' education may have been too sheltered and privileged, feigns anger at them for refusing the throne and sends them away from the land.
The Lost Camel: No sooner do the three princes arrive abroad, they face clues to identify precisely a camel they had never seen. They conclude that the camel is lame, blind in one eye, missing a tooth, carrying a pregnant woman, and wearing honey on one side and butter on the other. When they later encounter the merchant who has lost the camel, they report their observations to him. He accuses them of stealing the camel and takes them to emperor Beramo, where he demands punishment.
Beramo then asks how they are able to give such an accurate description of the camel if they have never seen it. It is clear from the princes' replies that they have used small clues to infer cleverly the nature of the camel.
Grass had been eaten from the side of the road where it was less green, so the princes had inferred that the camel was blind on the other side. Because there were lumps of chewed grass on the road that were the size of a camel's tooth, they inferred they had fallen through the gap left by a missing tooth. The tracks showed the prints of only three feet, the fourth being dragged, indicating that the animal was lame. That butter was carried on one side of the camel and honey on the other was evident because ants had been attracted to melted butter on one side of the road and flies to spilled honey on the other.
As for the woman, one of the princes said: "I guessed that the camel must have carried a woman, because I had noticed that near the tracks where the animal had knelt down the imprint of a foot was visible. Because some urine was nearby, I wet my fingers and as a reaction to its odour I felt a sort of carnal concupiscence, which convinced me that the imprint was of a woman's foot."
"I guessed that the same woman must have been pregnant", said another prince, "because I had noticed nearby handprints which were indicative that the woman, being pregnant, had helped herself up with her hands while urinating."
At this moment, a traveller enters the scene to say that he has just found a missing camel wandering in the desert. Beramo spares the lives of the three princes, lavishes rich rewards on them, and appoints them to be his advisors.
The three princes have many other adventures, where they continue to display their sagacity, stories-within-stories are told, and there is a happy ending.
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